Looking the data released on Wednesday we can say that US economy has been expanding really quickly since 2014 in Q3. This may be synthesized as an annual rate of 3.3%. This growth is even more faster than any estimation, and in a tweet President Trump said that if not for the storms GBP would have climbed 3.9% by now. It seems that this improvement was led by strong business investments. GBP gained even more after the news that UK will pay between €45 and €55bn ($53-63bn) when leaving the EU. In this way, UK will cover EU liabilities worth as much as €100bn.
Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator, refused to confirm these reports though, calling them “rumors”. Surely in this case an agreement would be relevant because UK is preparing for the December EU summit where it may start the next phase of talk and future trade ties with the EU. This surely is a step forward, but there still are 2 critical issues that aren’t finding agreement yet: expatriate citizens rights after Brexit and the Irish border.
At 9:00 GMT from the German Bundesagentur für Arbeit German statistics will publish the German Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change for November. These rates are seasonally adjusted and are expected to be uncharged at 5.6%. The foresaw change for November is -10K (prev. -11K) and if the actual number will be significantly different we are likely to see EUR volatility.
At 10:00 GMT: November’s Eurozone Consumet Price Index & CPI Core (YoY) will be released and the expectations see the CPI increased to 1.6%. The previous release was 1.4% and Core is believed to come in at 1.1%, considering its previous release was of 0.9%. Any significant difference from these expectations will likely cause EUR volatility.
At 13:30 GMT: October’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM & YoY) by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Month-on-Month is forecast to come in at 0.2%, a slight increase from the previous 0.1%. Year-on-Year PCE is also forecast to come in slightly higher at 1.4% (prev. 1.3%). A release significantly different from forecast will see USD volatility.
At 13:30 GMT: the US Department of Labor will release Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 24th and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended November 17th. The markets hope to see data that would reinforce the strong and resilient labor market in the US, which has been fueling economic growth.